A few years ago, during the Kerala floods, I kept seeing the same phrase in reports and news articles. It was described as a “once in a century” flood.
It made me think. I thought if there are incidents that might happen once in a century, then there might be more such things if i look back. The last hundred years must also have had their own share of events. Out of simple curiosity, I started looking back. I not only looked for natural disasters, crisis etc but also economic events.
Since we were nearing the 2020s back then, the 1920s naturally came into my focus.
I came to know that 1920s were called as 'The Roaring Twenties'.
The Roaring Twenties were a period of strong economic growth and optimism, especially in the United States, with effects felt across the world. New industries were emerging, technology was advancing quickly, and stock markets were rising. Many ordinary people began investing for the first time. There was a general belief that prosperity had become the new normal.
That did not last.
In 1929, the stock market crashed.
What followed was the Great Depression until 1939, a long term economic downturn that affected employment, savings, businesses, and social stability of life for many years. It was not just a financial event, but a deep disruption of everyday life.
What draws my attention today is not the history, but how familiar the present atmosphere feels.
Conversations with many in my circle are now are often centred around assets and investments. Gold, silver, copper, stocks, real estate etc. Even among people who were never interested in markets earlier, there are question about about where to put money, how to protect it from inflation, and how to avoid missing opportunities.
This reminds me of what i read about the Roaring Twenties. Not because rising markets are a problem, but because widespread confidence can potentially hide underlying risks. When optimism becomes common sense, caution takes a back seat. I can' believe am writing this, as i always keep an optimistic view of market.
I do realise that today’s world is different. Economic systems are far more complex. Governments and central banks actively intervene. Information travels fast.
Still........ human behaviour remains largely the same.! I once read somewhere that humans are apes with stone age emotions and god like technology or something like that. And i agree with that.
History shows that periods of strong optimism are often followed by some form of correction.
When I was in school, there was a chapter about Issac Newton in the English class. He was fascinating to me. Later in life, I remember reading that Newton spent a significant part of his life studying alchemy. That fact surprised me deeply at the time. He was one of the greatest scientific minds in history. I could not understand how someone like him could spend such significant amount of time in that.?
As I grew older, and as my own understanding of the world at large improved slightly, my judgment softened. For example - after learning about how fiat currency comes into existence, multiplied, and sustained largely through shared belief and institutional authority, it feels less strange.
In many ways, the modern financial system resembles a form of alchemy. Something intangible is created, given value, circulated, and treated as real, with consequences that are very real in people’s lives.
Personally, based on whatever little I have learned so far, and what I am still learning, I see the global financial system as a carefully managed circus built around this modern alchemy. As long as it remains within the control of institutions, it will continue to function, sometimes smoothly, sometimes with visible strain.
But when it begins to move beyond that control, I would not be surprised if some form of crisis emerges. Not necessarily by accident, but as a way to force a reset, to bring excesses back into alignment.
This is not a prediction, and certainly not a desire. It is simply observation based on history and by my interest in how human systems tend to behave over time.
The lesson from the Roaring Twenties, at least for me, is not fear or pessimism. Growth should be welcomed, but not taken for granted. Optimism is necessary, but it should be accompanied by awareness.
History may not repeat itself exactly. But it does leave patterns behind.
I am also fascinated by the Gilded Age. Sometimes i wonder if we are in another Gilded Age actually.
Note - In my heart i like to believe that the world is moving to the post - scarcity Star Trek world. But my brain says - hold your horses.
