Age of Empires

The Israel and US attack on Iran and Iran's counter moves is not an abstract incident for Indians. Not the way many conflicts around the world felt. Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, and the chettan selling chai at the junction near my place shut down his tea shop. Now Fuel prices are up and inflation is here post-election, as expected.

This is a war most people I know don't want. And most people I know are blaming Trump. I get it. But having watched geopolitics for a while now, this feels less like a Trump thing and more like a particular phase of an ongoing institutional effort in a certain direction. Doesn't matter if it's Trump or anyone else sitting in that chair. Some version of this was always in the pipeline. 

Here's the thing and this is not something you will hear often ,I actually thought Trump might not start another war. I thought he's someone you can negotiate with if you have leverage. All the tarriff wars and aggressions came across to me as a negotiation positions. I thought he exists more in the world of 'Suits' than Washington -I mean that seriously, not as an insult. Transactional. At least that's what I thought. I was wrong. There are many layers to this particular conflict itself. Many rabbit holes which am aware of but don't want to take. 

I don't know how many Malayalees are aware about this, but Kerala - before Vasco da Gama ever set foot here was a serious node in global maritime trade. For example - Kozhikode. The Samoothiri of Kozhikode traded with Arabs, Chinese, and merchants from across the known world. These traders came on monsoon winds ,what they called trade winds and bought our pepper and spices, stayed for months waiting for the winds to shift direction, and sailed back home. That's how trade worked then. You came, you stayed, you became part of the place for a season. Kozhikode was cosmopolitan in the truest sense back then. These traders mixed with local society, even married into it etc. It was commerce built on trust and mutual interest.

Then Gama came.

The Portuguese wanted to cut out the middlemen especially in the land route such as the Arab traders, the existing networks built over centuries and find a direct route from Europe to our coast via ocean. I read somewhere that it was a Gujarati merchant who showed Gama the route from Africa to Kerala. When Gama arrived for the first time, he came with underwhelming gifts. The Samoothiri was unimpressed. The visit ended awkwardly. But it was a proof of concept for them. Gama went back, reported success, and returned again with an armada.

The second coming was not a just a trade mission. His fleet bombed Kozhikode. And just like that, our long history of colonialism began. All of it, at its root, was about trade and natural resources.

This is an extremely simplified version. There are layers and nuances to every part of it. But the shape of the story more or less the same.

What brought all of this back to me was the Hormuz closure. It reminded me immediately of the cartaz system the Portuguese imposed in our waters. Under cartaz, any vessel passing through the Indian Ocean needed a permit , a pass issued by the Portuguese empire. 

Just different players, different century. Strategic location and important resource always attract a certain type of players to that land. I am not taking sides here. I am just watching the pattern repeat itself.

At school I learned that Vasco da Gama discovered us. Discovered.! [ one can argue it was implied as if he was the first European to reach via sea or something, but that was not how it got registered in me ].  Back then I genuinely believed Kerala had no real connection to the outside world before the his arrival. It was only later through my interest in commercial history, that I came across these details.

One more observation. People view these incidents through the lens of personal morality. But - Personal morality and institutional morality are not the same thing. If you try to understand global conflicts through the lens of how a decent human being should behave -it won't make sense. It will just feel like madness and cruelty. But if you put yourself in the shoes of the institutions involved - their incentives, their fears, their stakes - things slowly start to make sense. 

And if you genuinely care about understanding any of this - you have to be willing to sit with it. Piece things together from sources you agree with and sources you don't. When you start understanding not just what is happening but why - the motivations, the pressures, the fears driving each actor - you also start getting a sense of where things might be heading.

From where I mm standing: some form of world war in the coming decades doesn't feel far-fetched. Neither do unprecedented disclosures, potential false flags, AGI arriving faster than anyone is prepared for etc along with several good things such as early steps to being a space faring civilization seems etc. Things that used to be science fiction are starting to feel like a rough draft of the near future.2026 is the year my worldview defaulted to a single phrase - truth is stranger than fiction.

One of my favorite fictional villain is a comic book character called Ozymandias. Brilliant guy. He understood the systemic problems of his world and genuinely wanted peace. His solution - stage a fake alien invasion, kill millions, unite the warring nations against a global threat, thus save billions. The logic is internally consistent. My greatest fear is that guys like him don't just exist in comic books, but in a friendly neighborhood think tank around the corner.

Practical notes before I wind up. Consider investing in real assets - things that provide actual, tangible value. Real estate is one of them. What I am noticing now is that people are selling large plots in non-urban areas and moving into compact city homes. Which makes sense for today.

But...... a few decades from now - I think the appeal of those properties will be very different. Agricultural or otherwise. Places with good water, clean air, distance from urban density. That kind of space is going to have a very specific appeal and value that most people aren't pricing in right now.

By then we will probably have drone taxis and domestic robots and those kind of things... Unless, of course, we get blown to oblivion first.

Model Tenancy Act

I have received queries on various occasions from various landlords asking whether rental laws have changed. I hope provide a general clarification based on available information.

Something called 'The Model Tenancy Act' was introduced by the Government of India in 2021 as a model law. 

Do note - a model law is more of a template and does not automatically become binding across the country. Rent regulation falls under the jurisdiction of individual states. The central government drafted the Act as a framework that states may adopt or modify.

The provisions commonly associated with 'rent rules 2025' such as mandatory written tenancy agreements, caps on security deposits (two months’ rent for residential properties and six months’ rent for commercial properties), compulsory registration of agreements, the establishment of Rent Authorities, regulated rent increases are features of the Model Tenancy Act framework.

Like i mentioned above, these provisions apply only in states that have enacted their own tenancy laws based on the Model Tenancy Act.

The Act proposes a three-tier mechanism to reduce reliance on traditional slow civil court procedures:

Rent Authority : Responsible for registration of tenancy agreements and initial dispute resolution.
Rent Court : Handles disputes such as eviction matters and non-payment of rent.
Rent Tribunal : Hears appeals against decisions of the Rent Court.

Inshort - The idea behind the Model Tenancy Act is straightforward.

Landlords and tenants should put their agreement in writing. The terms should be clear. Security deposits should not be excessive. The terms should be transparent.

In return, landlords are given a proper legal system to protect their rights. If there is non-payment of rent, refusal to vacate, or breach of agreement, there is a structured fast process to resolve it through Rent Authorities, Rent Courts, and Rent Tribunals instead of long civil court delays.

Regarding implementation, while the Model Tenancy Act was introduced in 2021, individual states are in different stages of adoption. Some states - including Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh etc have initiated processes toward implementation.

In Kerala, as of early 2026, the state has not yet replaced the existing rent law with a Model Tenancy Act based law. The state continues to operate under the Kerala Buildings (Lease and Rent Control) Act, 1965 for rental matters, and the Model Tenancy Act framework has not been formally enacted or adopted by the Kerala Legislature.

The Roaring Twenties

 A few years ago, during the Kerala floods, I kept seeing the same phrase in reports and news articles. It was described as a “once in a century” flood. 

It made me think. I thought if there are incidents that might happen once in a century, then there might be more such things if i look back. The last hundred years must also have had their own share of events. Out of simple curiosity, I started looking back. I not only looked for natural disasters, crisis etc but also economic events.

Since we were nearing the 2020s back then, the 1920s naturally came into my focus. 

I came to know that 1920s were called as 'The Roaring Twenties'.

The Roaring Twenties were a period of strong economic growth and optimism, especially in the United States, with effects felt across the world. New industries were emerging, technology was advancing quickly, and stock markets were rising. Many ordinary people began investing for the first time. There was a general belief that prosperity had become the new normal.

That did not last.

In 1929, the stock market crashed.

What followed was the Great Depression until 1939, a long term economic downturn that affected employment, savings, businesses, and social stability of life for many years. It was not just a financial event, but a deep disruption of everyday life.

What draws my attention today is not the history, but how familiar the present atmosphere feels.

Conversations with many in my circle are now are often centred around assets and investments. Gold, silver, copper, stocks, real estate etc. Even among people who were never interested in markets earlier, there are question about about where to put money, how to protect it from inflation, and how to avoid missing opportunities.

This reminds me of what i read about the Roaring Twenties. Not because rising markets are a problem, but because widespread confidence can potentially hide underlying risks. When optimism becomes common sense, caution takes a back seat. I can' believe am writing this, as i always keep an optimistic view of market.

I do realise that today’s world is different. Economic systems are far more complex. Governments and central banks actively intervene. Information travels fast.

Still........  human behaviour remains largely the same.! I once read somewhere that humans are apes with stone age emotions and god like technology or something like that. And i agree with that.

History shows that periods of strong optimism are often followed by some form of correction.

When I was in school, there was a chapter about Issac Newton in the English class. He was fascinating to me. Later in life, I remember reading that Newton spent a significant part of his life studying alchemy. That fact surprised me deeply at the time. He was one of the greatest scientific minds in history. I could not understand how someone like him could spend such significant amount of time in that.?

As I grew older, and as my own understanding of the world at large improved slightly, my judgment softened.  For example - after learning about how fiat currency comes into existence, multiplied, and sustained largely through shared belief and institutional authority, it feels less strange.

In many ways, the modern financial system resembles a form of alchemy. Something intangible is created, given value, circulated, and treated as real, with consequences that are very real in people’s lives.

Personally, based on whatever little I have learned so far, and what I am still learning, I see the global financial system as a carefully managed circus built around this modern alchemy. As long as it remains within the control of institutions, it will continue to function, sometimes smoothly, sometimes with visible strain.

But when it begins to move beyond that control, I would not be surprised if some form of crisis emerges. Not necessarily by accident, but as a way to force a reset, to bring excesses back into alignment.

This is not a prediction, and certainly not a desire. It is simply observation based on history and by my interest in how human systems tend to behave over time.

The lesson from the Roaring Twenties, at least for me, is not fear or pessimism. Growth should be welcomed, but not taken for granted. Optimism is necessary, but it should be accompanied by awareness.

History may not repeat itself exactly. But it does leave patterns behind.

I am also fascinated by the Gilded Age. Sometimes i wonder if we are in another Gilded Age actually.

Note - In my heart i like to believe that the world is moving to the post - scarcity Star Trek world. But my brain says - hold your horses.